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Scarcity of Resources
Inevitably as time moves on resouces are likley to get scarcer. Resources can be considered in several ways but we propose to divide consideration between Raw Materials and Plant and Machinery. Obviously there is an overlap. A scarcity of world copper will massively impact on wire, and generators.
There is a very real danger that the world will wake up all at once to the need for the same resources and demand willf ar outstrip supply. If the stated rational objective of reduction of carbon emissions is to be achieved then it is logical for co-operation to exist at every level for the deployment of these resouces. Of course since the world is driven by economic models and the carbon objectives are translated itot economic models this is unlikely to happen without substantial effort. Nevertheless, purely logically the best outcome for all parties (given that global warming does not recognise national boudnaries) is s sensible agreement about the priorities of of building certain key routes.
It is suggested that the priority should be based on the economic maxim of transferring the greatest amount of electricity to the largenst number of users for the smallest outlay.
It is suggested that the major economic blocks should start to consider whether they can contemplate a planning system that fairly distributes resources should they come scarce.
One resource of particular concern in Copper. One only needs to appreciate the mileage of a new European System, and then consider the other parts of the world where similar decisions are to be made to realise how rapidly we could quite simply run out of copper.
One must also consider other even more basic materials such as concrete - for example aggregate stocks are rapidly diminishing - there are simply fewer and fewer gravel beds that we can mine.
We elaborate on further pages regarding raw materials as and when information becomes available.
Ships for establishment of wind farms, laying cables, and other offshore work need time to be built. Those Countries without indiginous shipbuilding industries will need to order outside. However at present ship building is in demand and order books are already full.
Cable manufacturing is at capacity and new plant may need to be built with a minimum lead time of five years. It is worth recalling that for undersea cables there is a need that it should have no joins. This means it has to be extruded under gravity, placed on rolls and directly laid on ships with lengths of perhaps 100km in one roll. This requires creation specialised facilities to address increased demand for HVDC links, planning for plant with dockside facilities, planning for specialised cable laying ships etc. The cable makers ABB and Siemens are both already heavily booked and one may anticipate bottlenecks should demand increase by any degree worldwide.
Machinery for onshore construction of VSC stations (leaving aside raw materials demand) will take time and again order books are full.