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The arguments here as we said on the fomer page, are enormously complex. But the maths of risk are in fact very simple. Can we afford to take even a small risk - when the potential damage is irreversible and catastrophic.
The overwhelming consensus of scientific opinion is that Global Warming is a reality and alarmingly all our esimates of its severity year on year are rapidly looking like gross underestimates. Of course these arguments are never going to be susceptible of proof - or at least not until until it is too late - so we will always have to act on a basis of assessment of the likelihood of a perceived risk coming to fruition.
t seems to us that to assess the risk one first must look at the downside - how bad is "bad". Every indicator shows that the worst case scenario is nothing short of Apocalyptic. It may not happen - indeed let us pray sincerely that it does not. A new scientist article of March 2009 gives a balanced view of what a 4 degree increase will do to our life style - and it is not happyu reading.
It is hard to tell. what does seem clear is that as more and more resources are devoted and as time slips past, the outlook becomes more frightening. Everything points to the fact that we need to act even sooner that first thought and more radically.
We of course say absolutely not. A two degree rise is what was regarded as possible by the Stern Report . It was then cautiously seen as possibly within safe limits (but this is a very big area of uncertainty). If we are to achieve this we need to recognise the consequences of failing to act. These are potentially in thw worst case scenario so great that we cannot afford to take even a 1% risk this might happen. The problem can be addressed and as the Stern Report tells us affordably so - but only if we ACT NOW and ACT TOGETHER
For those who wish to get further into the argument (see our resoning earlier as to why it is irrelevant to the objectives of this group) we have included a few links to sites which we feel address the issue constructively.
New Scientist Article regarding impact of a 4 degree rise in Global Temperatures
Royal Society list of ten arguments and counter arguments
Description of warming in Antarctica (March 2009)
Video of risk analysis of acting or not acting on climate change(see previous page)
Realclimate is a first class site where climatologists come together to address all issues relating to their science. The index page has a section of addressing contrarian arguments which covers many of the issues raised to dispute aspects of climate change.
How to talk to a climate sceptic (website part of climate science blog)
site with chart of temperatures of earth over last 2 billion years